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After a few days off due to a business trip to India, I am pleased to be back reporting on the UK election, albeit with a case of 'Delhi Belly'. Upon returning to London last night, I have been bombarded by a series of conflicting polls. The Times is reporting that Labour is up to 42%, the Tories at 29% and the LibDems at 21%. However, The Telegraph says that the Tories sit at 33%, Labour at 36% and the LibDems on 24%. The interesting thing to note is that there seems to be divergence among all the polls over the last week or so. Check it out on the BBC poll tracker and see what I mean - either the polls show Labour up 8-9 points, or the race is ultra tight withing 2-3%. http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/vote2005/polltracker/html/polltracker.stm My own thought is that there is no way that Blair is sitting so high up. Ask anyone you meet in the UK, and they will tell you that they are thoroughly angry with Labour. My guess is that many will stay home on election day, a phenomenon that hardly ever helps the incumbent. I think that Blair will win, but his majority will be reduced to less than 70 seats, with more than a few upsets. Expect the LibDems to come out with the most gains, especially in significantly Muslim areas, where Charles Kennedy is making a huge effort based on his opposition to the war. More to come...... Post a comment in response: |
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