The financial crisis affecting non-ferrous metals industry
In the summer of 2007, the United States sub-loan crisis has been triggered by global financial turmoil on the world economy have a significant negative impact. According to the analysis of the global economy over the past few years has been the steady growth of the end of the cycle to begin to adjust to a new cycle. World economic situation and the major changes has been to China non-ferrous metals industry have a significant impact.
1, the financial crisis dealt a heavy blow to the world economy
Since the summer of 2007, the United States occurred in sub-loan crisis, as the core of the economic operation of financial markets in Britain and the United States has been in a state of instability. In particular, in September 2008, with the top five U.S. investment banks Lehman Brothers filed for bankruptcy protection, Merrill Lynch & Co.die casting and aluminum die casting merger with Bank of America, the world's credit markets hit the panic level has led to a wave of investors to the safety of assets "Flee" to an extent not seen since World War II. This not only shocked Wall Street as well as the world's "financial tsunami." At Lehman Brothers declared bankruptcy the same day, the U.S. stock market opened, the Dow Jones Industrial Average plummeted 300 points, while the U.S. stock market was down by the drag, Canada, Brazil, Peru, Mexico, Britain, France, Germany, Switzerland, Russia, South Korea, Japan, Australia, Singapore, New Zealand, Malaysia, the Philippines, China, Hong Kong, China's stock market one after another price drop. At present, the United States is caught in the "once-in" financial crisis, induced by a series of global economic turmoil is the possibility of increasing. World economic growth has slowed significantly to become a reality.
2, the global financial crisis led to the non-ferrous metal prices
Domestic and foreign non-ferrous metals co-exist in the cash and futures markets, copper and other major non-ferrous metals futures derivatives to highlight the properties, with the price trend is closely related to the financial situation is the virtual economy and real economy closely associated with the goods. The U.S. financial crisis intensified, so that almost all investors lose confidence in financial products, withdrawal of the futures market, as a direct result of the global aluminum die casting financial commodities (including oil and non-ferrous metals futures, such as derivatives) prices down. As the non-ferrous metals market at home and abroad to achieve the integration in the international market, the main non-ferrous metals prices fell sharply, so that the domestic market was not spared either.
Since mid-September 2008, as the United States to further aggravate the financial crisis, the main non-ferrous metals in the international market price of a new round of fierce fell under the influence of the Chinese market, copper, aluminum and other major non-ferrous metals prices also fell sharply. To mid-October 2008, China's copper market is about 40,000 yuan / ton, Sept. 10 fell 27.6 percent; aluminum price of about 14,000 yuan / ton, Sept. 10 fell 16.7 percent; price of lead To 15,500 yuan / ton, Sept.die casting 10 fell 13.4 percent; zinc price of 11,100 yuan / ton, Sept. 10 fell 19.6 percent; nickel price of 120,000 yuan / ton, Sept. 10 fell 20 %.
3, the main non-ferrous metal prices on the impact of China's industrial development
China is the world's largest non-ferrous metals production and consumption, non-ferrous metals market prices, not only for China's nonferrous metals industry resulted in an important impact on production and operation, will also affect the industry, and to some extent on the operation of the national economy as a whole Have an impact.
From the analysis of the current situation, China's aluminum, zinc industry is the largest in the crisis-affected areas, production and management have been in trouble, losing money in the industry. Copper, lead, nickel industry, though also very much affected, but there is no industry-wide losses in the difficult situation.
Non-ferrous metals market and economic cycles are closely related. Despite the long-term trends from the analysis of China non-ferrous metals market with good prospects in the industrialization and urbanization, driven by copper, aluminum and other major non-ferrous metals overall demand on the rise. However, at home and abroad, non-ferrous metals market has been basically into the background, the world's non-ferrous metals market, the cyclical changes inevitably bring Chinese non-ferrous metals market, the cyclical changes in domestic demand can not be expressed as a straight line up. In the next two years, the Chinese market for copper, aluminum casting and other major non-ferrous metals demand growth will be subject to periodic change. Significant slowdown. In fact, the full realization of China Nonferrous Metals Industry of the market 16 years ago, business has gone through a second cyclical changes in the global market, to market a more profound understanding of the cycle, and accumulated a cyclical changes in the market to deal with some experience.
4, on the prospects of the market cycle is estimated that
Since the 1970s from the U.S. since the gold standard, the U.S. dollar as a world currency in the global economy plays an important role in the operation. However, as the dollar bear responsibility for the issue of the U.S. government and its monetary policy is not in charge of running the world economy will inevitably lead to the U.S. government's monetary policy and global economic development, especially in the economic development of developing countries have a sharp contradiction. In fact, the U.S. government's ability to cope with the financial crisis stronger and is expected after a year or so period of adjustment, the basic financial operations will be normal to ensure that the U.S. economy as a virtual pillar of economic development. However, the United States does not attach importance to the development of the real economy, so that the real economy into a virtual slave of economic development. In this way, the global real economy of the inevitable adjustment period longer than the financial adjustment. China and other developing countries and the virtual economy is weak, rely mainly on the development of the real economy. Real economy lags behind readjustment of the virtual economy to adjust the basic law, resulting in the current round of world non-ferrous metals market, the adjustment may take up to three or four years. During that period, the domestic and foreign markets copper, aluminum and other major non-ferrous metal prices will be running low.
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